Net Effects of Gasoline Price Changes on Transit Ridership in U.S. Urban Areas, MTI Report 12-19

Using panel data of transit ridership and gasoline prices for ten selected U.S. urbanized areas over the time period of 2002 to 2011, this study analyzes the effect of gasoline prices on ridership of the four main transit modes—bus, light rail, heavy rail, and commuter rail—as well as their aggregate ridership. Improving upon past studies on the subject, this study accounts for endogeneity between the supply of services and ridership, and controls for a comprehensive list of factors that may potentially influence transit ridership. This study also examines short- and long-term effects and non-constant effects at different gasoline prices. The analysis found varying effects, depending on transit modes and other conditions. Strong evidence was found for positive short-term effects only for bus and the aggregate: a 0.61-0.62 percent ridership increase in response to a 10 percent increase in current gasoline prices (elasticity of 0.061 to 0.062). The long-term effects of gasoline prices, on the other hand, was significant for all modes and indicated a total ridership increase ranging from 0.84 percent for bus to 1.16 for light rail, with commuter rail, heavy rail, and the aggregate transit in response to a 10 percent increase in gasoline prices. The effects at the higher gasoline price level of over $3 per gallon were found to be more substantial, with a ridership increase of 1.67 percent for bus, 2.05 percent for commuter rail, and 1.80 percent for the aggregate for the same level of gasoline price changes. Light rail shows even a higher rate of increase of 9.34 percent for gasoline prices over$4. In addition, a positive threshold boost effect at the $3 mark of gasoline prices was found for commuter and heavy rails, resulting in a substantially higher rate of ridership increase. The results of this study suggest that transit agencies should prepare for a potential increase in ridership during peak periods that can be generated by substantial gasoline price increases over$3 per gallon for bus and commuter rail modes, and over $4 per gallon for light rail, in order to accommodate higher transit travel needs of the public through pricing strategies, general financing, capacity management, and operations planning of transit services

Essays on Impact of Infrastructure in the presence of market imperfections

This dissertation is a collection of papers analyzing the effect of transport and credit infrastructure on the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Chapter 1 uses a partial equilibrium framework to isolate the effect of rural transport infrastructure improvement. It obtains an unbiased estimate of transport improvement on high yield variety technology adoption, a mechanism by which infrastructure improvement can affect agricultural return. It finds that although transportation infrastructure improvement significantly increases acreage for high yield variety rice, the acreage for local variety rice does not decrease but remains constant post improvement. The findings suggests there transport improvement needs to be complemented with other measures to yield complete adoption of improved agricultural technology. Chapter 2 improves upon Chapter 1 and uses a rural market equilibrium framework to analyze the effect of rural transport infrastructure on agricultural productivity under perfect and imperfect markets. This chapter, using a theoretical model derives scenarios, (involving relative credit elasticity in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors and elasticity of total stock of labor and capital in the rural market), under which agricultural productivity will be enhanced or deteriorated in the short run and long run under perfect and imperfect market scenarios. It empirically examines the effect of transport improvement on conditions that determine its effect on agricultural return and finds that transport improvement may increase, decrease or keep agricultural output constant depending on its effect on stock of capital and labor in rural markets. Chapter 3 analyzes the role of access to finance in promoting the efficiency and growth of micro-enterprise activities and role of access to finance in participation of micro-enterprises. It finds that access to finance is a significant constraining factor in the growth of micro-enterprises and that the returns to capital invested in micro-enterprises are significantly higher than the interest rates charged by some of the micro-finance institutions that borrow from the government at low rates. The findings of this chapter indicates that there are big gains to be realized from expansion of access to credit to micro-enterprises at reasonable interest rates through the existing network of micro-finance institutions

Transport infrastructure and welfare an application to nigeria

Transport infrastructure is deemed to be central to development and consumes a large fraction of the development assistance envelope. Yet there is debate about the economic impact of road projects. This paper proposes an approach to assess the differential development impacts of alternative road construction and prioritize various proposals, using Nigeria as a case study. Recognizing that there is no perfect measure of economic well-being, a variety of outcome metrics are used, including crop revenue, livestock revenue, non-agricultural income, the probability of being multi-dimensionally poor, and local gross domestic product for Nigeria. Although the measure of transport is the most accurate possible, it is still endogenous because of the nonrandom placement of road infrastructure. This endogeneity is addressed using a seemingly novel instrumental variable termed the natural path: the time it would take to walk along the most logical route connecting two points without taking into account other, bias-causing economic benefits. Further, the analysis considers the potential endogeneity from nonrandom placement of households and markets through carefully chosen control variables. It finds that reducing transportation costs in Nigeria will increase crop revenue, non-agricultural income, the wealth index, and local gross domestic product. Livestock sales increase as well, although this finding is less robust. The probability of being multi-dimensionally poor will decrease. The results also cast light on income diversification and structural changes that may arise. These findings are robust to relaxing the exclusion restriction. The paper also demonstrates how to prioritize alternative road programs by comparing the expected development impacts of alternative New Partnership for Africas Development projects. Document type: Boo

Culture-Based Identification of Causative Organisms in Ascitic Fluids of Patients with Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis Secondary to Decompensated Liver Disease and their Sensitivities to Ceftriaxone as an Empiric Therapy

OBJECTIVES To identify the pathogens in the ascitic fluids of patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and then to determine their sensitivity pattern to ceftriaxone. METHODOLOGY The cross-sectional study was conducted at the Medical Unit-A, Department of Medicine, Hayatabad Medical Complex, Peshawar, from November 2021 to April 2022. Before ceftriaxone treatment was started, a minimum of 10 ml of ascitic fluid was introduced into a blood culture vial. Only patients with a positive culture were registered, and their information was gathered using a proforma. For statistical analysis, SPSS version 23 was used. RESULTSA total of 96 patients were enrolled in our study. There were 62 (59.52%) male and 34 (40.48%) female patients. Based on the isolation and identification of bacteria, the most prevalent bacteria isolated was Escherichia coli in 36 (37.5%) patients, followed by Acinetobacter Spp in 13 (13.54%) patients, Streptococcus spp in 14 (14.58%), Enterococcus spp in 11 (11.45%), Staphylococcus aureus in 9 (9.39%), MRSA in 8(8.33%) and K. Pneumonia in  5(5.21%) patients. The overall sensitivity of ceftriaxone to gram-positive bacteria was observed in 12 (42.85%) isolates, whereas the overall sensitivity of ceftriaxone to gram-negative bacteria was observed in 25 (36.76%) isolates. (p=0.091) (Figure 6). CONCLUSION Our study concludes that gram-negative bacteria were more prevalent than gram-positive bacteria in ascitic fluids of patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. The most common isolated pathogen was E.coli. Gram-negative was more resistant to ceftriaxone as compared to gram-positive bacteria

Impact of Rural Road Improvement on High Yield Variety Technology Adoption: Evidence from Bangladesh

The paper examines the impact of rural road improvement on high yielding variety technology adoption. Rural roads improvement enhances access to output and input markets and thus decreases cost of accessing high-yielding variety (HYV) seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and information on HYV cultivation technique, and further increases the relative profitability of HYV rice. Therefore, the paper hypothesizes that it induces farmers to increase HYV acreage and reduce traditional local variety rice acreage. This paper supports the hypothesis that road improvement increases HYV rice acreage using empirical analysis, while it does not find a statistically significant impact on local variety rice. The results are robust to different specifications and sample sizes. Therefore, the policy implications of this paper is that rural roads can be used to complement other efforts to promote technology adoption

Impact of Rural Road Improvement on High Yield Variety Technology Adoption: Evidence from Bangladesh

Removed at publisher's request Jan. 16, 2012Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, International Development,

Net Effects of Gasoline Price Changes on Transit Ridership in U.S. Urban Areas

Using panel data of transit ridership and gasoline prices for ten selected U.S. urbanized areas over the time period of 2002 to 2011, this study analyzes the effect of gasoline prices on ridership of the four main transit modes—bus, light rail, heavy rail, and commuter rail—as well as their aggregate ridership. Improving upon past studies on the subject, this study accounts for endogeneity between the supply of services and ridership, and controls for a comprehensive list of factors that may potentially influence transit ridership. This study also examines short- and long-term effects and non-constant effects at different gasoline prices. The analysis found varying effects, depending on transit modes and other conditions. Strong evidence was found for positive short-term effects only for bus and the aggregate: a 0.61-0.62 percent ridership increase in response to a 10 percent increase in current gasoline prices (elasticity of 0.061 to 0.062). The long-term effects of gasoline prices, on the other hand, was significant for all modes and indicated a total ridership increase ranging from 0.84 percent for bus to 1.16 for light rail, with commuter rail, heavy rail, and the aggregate transit in response to a 10 percent increase in gasoline prices. The effects at the higher gasoline price level of over $3 per gallon were found to be more substantial, with a ridership increase of 1.67 percent for bus, 2.05 percent for commuter rail, and 1.80 percent for the aggregate for the same level of gasoline price changes. Light rail shows even a higher rate of increase of 9.34 percent for gasoline prices over$4. In addition, a positive threshold boost effect at the $3 mark of gasoline prices was found for commuter and heavy rails, resulting in a substantially higher rate of ridership increase. The results of this study suggest that transit agencies should prepare for a potential increase in ridership during peak periods that can be generated by substantial gasoline price increases over$3 per gallon for bus and commuter rail modes, and over $4 per gallon for light rail, in order to accommodate higher transit travel needs of the public through pricing strategies, general financing, capacity management, and operations planning of transit services

Fixed-Effects Panel Data Analysis of Gasoline Prices, Fare, Service Supply, and Service Frequency on Transit Ridership in 10 U.S. Urbanized Areas

Gasoline price increases since 1999 have generated substantial discussion about their effect on travel behavior. With panel data for 10 selected U.S. urbanized areas between 2002 and 2011, this study analyzed the effects of gasoline prices and three factors that were internal to transit agencies—fare, service supply, and service frequency—on ridership of bus, light rail, heavy rail, and commuter rail, as well as their aggregate ridership. Improving on past studies on the subject, this study accounted for the simultaneous relationship between service supply and ridership and controlled for factors that were external to transit agencies’ control but might have influenced ridership. With fixed-effects models that examined temporal changes within each urbanized area, the analysis found that the possibility of simultaneity was low. The results of estimated coefficients showed that the short-term increase in ridership due to gasoline price increases was relatively small for bus and aggregate transit and marginal for rails, certainly smaller than the effects of the three internal factors. The total influence of the three internal factors was found to be more substantial than that of external factors; this finding indicated the potential to increase ridership by transit agencies’ efforts when resources were available. In addition, it is recommended that transit agencies prepare for a ridership increase more for bus than for rail because of gasoline prices, considering that even a small increase could require a substantial service increase to accommodate travelers’ needs during peak periods

Does Access to Finance Matter in Microenterprise Growth? Evidence from Bangladesh

In less-developed economies such as Bangladesh where the farm sector is the major source of employment and income, the rural nonfarm sector (RNF) often as an additional source of income increasingly plays an important role in fostering the development of the rural economy, and microenterprise activities constitute a significant share of this sector. However, the key to participation in such activities requires investment and access to adequate funds. This paper investigates the role of access to finance in promoting efficiency and growth of microenterprise activities. Our findings suggest that the households engaged in microenterprise activities besides farm and other nonfarm activities are much better off (in terms of income, expenditure and poverty) than those who do not engage in such activities. However, fewer than 10 percent of the enterprises have access to institutional finance (formal banks or microcredit) although the rate of return on microenterprise investments is more than sufficient (36 percent per year) to repay institutional loans. Our findings suggest that credit constraints may reduce the enterprise profit margin by as much as 13.6 percent per year. As such, further in-depth studies should explore why microfinance institutions (MFIs) have not been more helpful in promoting microenterprise growth in Bangladesh

Who Benefits Most from Rural Electrification? Evidence in India

This paper applies an econometric analysis to estimate the average and distribution benefits of rural electrification using rich household survey data from India. The results support that rural electrification helps to reduce time allocated to fuelwood collection by household members and increases time allocated to studying by boys and girls. Rural electrification also increases the labor supply of men and women, schooling of boys and girls, and household per capita income and expenditure. Electrification also helps reduce poverty. But the larger share of benefits accrues to wealthier rural households, with poorer ones having more limited use of electricity. The analysis also shows that restricted supply of electricity, due to frequent power outages, negatively affects both household electricity connection and its consumption, thereby reducing the expected benefits of rural electrification